Well, the CPO came out with their scorecard for Trumps healthcare plan. It’s about as bad as you would expect for actual people, though the deficit gets better so republicans will tout that.
Broadly the plan details how 14 Million people would lose their health care by 2018, with that number rising to 24 million people by 2026, with 7 million more losing their employers health insurance over a decade. Medicaid will bear the cost of the bill, with and $880 billion-dollar cut starting around 2019 when the Obama Medicaid expansion is pulled back. The heaviest taxpayer cost would go to those earning less than $26,500, many which are older Americans would foot the bill at $14,600 per year whereas those in the top 1% would be looking at a $75,000 tax cut. Compare that to Obamacare, where those only earning $26,500 would only have to pay $1600. The Deficit will go down by about $337 billion over a decade so there’s that. Finally, for whatever reason it seems that the individual insurance marketplace isn’t in a death spiral, and won’t be even if this bill passes. Huh.
This is all an estimate mind, and when the CPO came out with their estimate for the Affordable Care Act, they estimated that 28 million would lose their health care, rather than the 24 million who gained theirs, so there’s no guarantee this is correct, though it should also be pointed out that the CPO does have a good reputation for a reason. They’re not just non-partisan (by requirement) they do make a sincere effort to be correct and predictive whenever possible regarding these bills.
Regardless, congress is most likely gonna vote by party lines regardless so I don’t know how much this matters.
Politico: 5 Takeaways from the CBO’s Report