There are currently two elections occurring concurrently that could have major ramifications for the future of much of the world. The French election, with Macron, Le Pen and the surprising late surge of support for the socialist Jean-Luc Melachon, the hard-left candidate proposing major renegotiation’s with the EU. The other is occurring in Indonesia, the largest Muslim country in the world and concerns its largest city, Jakarta. The battle is between the pluralist Christian candidate and a right wing conservative Muslim, the latter advocating that a Christian cannot lead a Muslim nation, the former that the scripture his opponent is using to justify this position has been misinterpreted a dis misleading the people.
Both of these elections can have major ramifications regarding the nature of continents and political structures in major countries, at least in their zones. France is vital to the EU and if Melachon or Le Pen do become president, they could either pull out of the EU or reshape it in a direction that could have devastating consequences, resulting either way in its dissolution. Melachon could provide the change necessary to move France forward, currently in an economic status with little to no growth and unemployment remaining unpleasantly high. Meanwhile in Jakarta, a major economic and cultural center of Indonesia with prominent connections to Saudi Arabia, a shift towards more conservative, orthodox Islam could spell further danger for the pluralist government currently in place.
However, neither of these elections are close, for any side. Assuming a dire loss or an easy victory, as far too many commentators are, is a fool’s gambit. We simply don’t know how the people are going to vote in the end, and if they consider one option worse or acceptable if it serves their interest. Neither of these countries are America, the system is not run by an electoral college given far too much weight to the rural areas, and both have economies an systems that while currently are not in the best shape, are still considered some of the best in the regions they are in.
I have no interest in making assumptions, it will end as it will. But as I’ve mentioned, another autocrat in Europe or in control of a large sector of a Muslim nation known for a rigorous conservative interpretation is not an outcome I see as ending well.