So, I’m a little obsessed with the French election. I say little, because I’m not watching and listening to every single event and rally I can get my hands on, such as I was with the American election. It is however very prominently on my mind, especially in light of the recent conclusion of the first round of votes, with predictably Macron and Le Pen heading to the second round (with a good showing from Melachon, the socialist candidate. So hey, good for him).
I’ve said this before, but this is a big deal, a big European election in much the same way as the German Election is a big deal, as these two are the only nations really able to tear down the EU if they exited themselves. Some might consider this a good thing, I disagree. ignoring the economic fallout, where the sudden decentralization with no actual plan for how that would work, no trade deals really in place,
(these things take years of effort and negotiation to build, case in point my own country, New Zealand, has become rather good at negotiating deals as a matter of economic survival, and it still takes us quite a few years to establish any real deal between nations. And we’re good at this shit.)
And the assumption that somehow there wouldn’t be a global backlash and recession from the biggest market in the world dissolving. It always irritates me when people ignore that.
The second thing is, of course, my concerns regarding conflict and war. I do not trust volatile, aggressive personalities which politically thrive of attacks on a nebulous other, be it opponents or minorities rather than providing plans for handling whatever problem has occurred. Erdogan and Putin (and the Hungarian guy but I don’t remember his name) are good examples of this, currently economically all of them are struggling, which is significant for nations like Russia and Turkey which could be very viable trading and resource hubs, if they were managed better, but if anything both have thrived politically by blaming much of the nations problems of other people, Kurds or Americans, or whatever.
Which is what makes the French election very important. Firstly there is another would be autocrat, secondly the threat of a dissolving EU, and whatever could come after that. If this goes the way of right wing populist, bold words with little thoughts and planning behind them, especially in the aftermath of some of Le Pens plans? This could end very badly.
And I know what the polls say. But I know better than to trust them blindly.
Politico: Macron and Le Pen headed to Runoff