Election thoughts and rambles

In the aftermath of Britain’s election, with Mays fall from a majority and Labors rise as a credible party once more, with Corbyn proving a surprisingly good campaigner, another election was held beneath many peoples notice. That is, the French Parliamentary election. 

Similar to the Presidential election there are two rounds, with Macrons Republique en Marche earning 31.5 percent of the vote in the first, potentially earning his party up to 400 seats within Parliament, an massive majority. While it should be noted that voters typically provide majorities to newly elected presidents to ensure their ability to lead and enact reforms, there were questions regarding French voters willingness to support a new party and an untested president. This is an impressive lead, though it bears repeating that two round system does mean that number could change, potentially in either direction. SO no massive response from me just yet.

In regards to Labors surprise growth, that of a 10% increase in parliament, in the end I can only wonder at Corbyns ability as both opposition leader and legislator. While the latter is unlikely to be seen in a Tory government, proposals and effective opposition and leadership could provide further strength to Labor given his new national profile (regardless of what much of the media and political establishment might want). As it is, I truly know little of his actual ability to do either so as above, I’m gonna wait and see.

It’s annoying this ambivalence I have right now. I like Macron, but until he begins making reforms I have no understanding of the impact or changes he can credibly make, or how that will affect French people and economy. I’m open to Corbyns success, but I know very little of the man and I’m hesitant to latch onto any British politician at this stage.

At this stage I’m just waiting for some new leaders to step up, and hopefully prove themselves nationally and internationally. Hopefully Macrons a signal of that change, but I feel that he’ll need to succeed for that to be worth focusing on.

 

Citations:
Bloomberg: Macron Tightens Grip on Parliamentary Seats

British Election exit polls point to hung parliament

Caaaaled it.

Just saying. Anyway, it looks like the conservative party has lost the majority, needing 326 seats to maintain control of parliament and requiring a coalition government to now lead Britain(ha!). At this stage it looks likely that Labor, having gained at least 33 seats from this election, along with the Scottish Independence Party are likely contenders for this coalition, though it must be said that the lib-dems are insisting there will be “no deals, no coalitions” cause reasons. I don’t know, pride?

Also, Comey has finished his latest senate hearing, and confirmed a few things:

1. Trump is still, as far as Comey is aware, not under investigation (which he did inform Trump of three times)
2. Trumps actions, his attempts to force a loyalty pledge, and his attempts to shut down the Flynn probe are what concerned Comey and encouraged him to write his notes.

He also insisted that all of Trump and his teams attempts to disparage him and blame him for any concerns within the FBI are “lies, plain and simple”.

So, this may lead to a potential obstruction of justice case, though by itself it is not enough, Britain is looking at a hung government, we’ll see how that goes, and Russia remains a looming concern/threat, not only for Trump but for the US and abroad. After all Comey did say they interfered with the election, and that they will be back. I’m inclined to take him at his word.

So, there’s an election coming up.

The British Election is a weird thing. The last three that I’ve gone into detail about were in many respects considered much more serious, problematic and representative of a possible far-right, alt-right populist upswing in politics. Turkey, France, the Netherlands, all had or have problematic leaders, concerning ramifications and well, were much more interesting.

Britain’s not. Not really anyway.

Regardless of who is elected, be it a minor Conservative win or a coalition led by (most likely) Labor, Brexit will continue, there will most likely an economic downturn, and the leader will grapple with continued terrorist threats and domestic struggles relating to the above concerns. Neither May nor Corbyn seems to have that much of a grasp of the situation, and regardless of what either candidate might say, have far less influence and control over Brexit and its consequences than they might like.

The reason this is less interesting, to me anyway, is the lack of uncertainty. Regardless of who wins these are the most likely outcomes for whoever wins, no dramatic vote, no power struggle or autocratic power grab, just more British politics, with different faces. Of course, I’m also not British and I won’t really be dealing with the fallout of the Brexit deal in whatever form it takes so some of the urgency for them may not be available to me.

I’m not used to politics being boring. This is very weird.

 

Citation:
Bloomberg: UK election Winner Saddled with Lousy Economic Outlook 

Trump left the Paris Agreement.

With the withdraw of the United States from the Paris Climate Agreement, Trump has confirmed the fears of the environmentally conscious, the business focused individuals focusing on the developing renewable energy markets many of his own people. But, is this really a bad thing?

Bear with me for a minute this needs some unpacking.

First, Trump has announced his intent to leave the Paris Agreement, the US can’t officially leave until November 4 2020, a day after that years presidential agreement. What this really means is that the US will no longer functionally be involved with the agreement, implementing no ideas or priorities and having no influence on other nations (that is the other 199) involved.

Secondly Trump has said that he is willing to negotiate the agreement if they can reach better terms for America, which I would assume to mean either fewer requirements, or benefits for their own trade and income. Somehow I don’t see that happening.

So, the US is not involved and cannot interfere in any other nations interactions with the Agreement, unless negotiations go there way, which many of the chief nations involved most likely won’t want to happen, either because of mistrust (currently) or ambition (read: China and India). This could actually be a good thing, for one primary reason: The US has a Veto.

And they cannot legitimately use it now. SO, Trump cannot stymie, prevent or block further developments of the Agreement, attack other nations through it, or prevent action with the agreement in some attempt to benefit his nation, somehow. I don’t know. By removing a potentially disabling actor from the agreement, Trump may have inadvertently saved it from a slow death, and that would have been far worse for work against Climate Change than America leaving for now.

This might not be such a bad thing.

Trumps back. The end.

Looking back at the NATO summit,and indeed the entirety of Trumps trip overseas, it’s not hard to question the relevancy of it all. In truth it doesn’t seem like he accomplished much of anything, he signed a deal with the Saudis, that Obama had already paved the way for, he met the Pope. And that seemed to be it. He went to Israel and sat at the wall, while also infuriating the intelligence community there and seemingly resolving them to be much more reticent with the intelligence in the future, and he went to the summit.

And wasn’t that an event. Firstly, he pissed off the British with the other intelligence leak, this one by reporters in the US revealing who committed the Manchester bombings. Secondly he refused to validate and support article 5 of the NATO agreement, the one where the nations agree to support each other conditionally. The language is vague so to supplement it, most presidents (in fact all involved before this one) have affirmed it to mean an attack on an ally is an attack on the US. Trump didn’t, making a vague comment ripe for reinterpretation, especially by a man known for attacking any perceived vulnerabilities with his bordering neighbors. And finally he did not reaffirm or deny US involvement in the Paris Deal, leaving the EU hanging on that as well.

Still, while all of that is concerning for the Europeans, and damaging to foreign relationships Trump and America has with some of their chief allies, the reality is not much was really done. The deal, and some vague denials. The world still spins, the EU has decided, or at least Merkel has decided, that it must stand on it’s own feet for now, and yeah. He went home.

And when the first comment he really makes is whinging about the media, you know nothing has really changed.

 

Citation:
The Atlantic: What did Trumps Foreign Trip Accomplish?
Politico: What did Merkel Mean?

Trump went to Saudi Arabia.

Trump didn’t screw up. I mean, completely anyway.

He’s currently in Saudi Arabia, and just yesterday gave a speech promoting better ties between his nation and theirs, and encouraging all likeminded Muslim nations and the “Muslim world” to stand together opposing terrorism. This was actually a good thing.

Remember this is the guy who claimed that “Islam Hates us”, that tried to implement a Muslim ban, and is generally considered opposed to anything related to Islamic terrorism or the thought of it. Or the barest connection to it. And yet he voiced a moderate, speech that didn’t go to far, that toed the Saudi line and made all the right noises. Well done Trump, you didn’t screw up.

And that’s about it. It wasn’t a great success, there’s no sudden shift in rhetoric for the Saudi family, the crown princes, or anything. They’ll probably think they have a closer relationship with this president than the last one, and will so long as they keep flattering him, and, uh, yeah. Didn’t start a war.

Neat.

There will be many claiming this as a success, many claiming it to be the first time, or second, or whatever that Trump actually acted like a president. He didn’t. He acted like a man who wasn’t totally incompetent and said basically nothing that mattered. Nothing has changed and next week, or month, or whatever he will make some comment about Muslims, or Mexicans or Comey and we’ll remember something very important. Trump kowtows.

He kowtows to his base when a home, he kowtows to the Russians when they visit, and he did the same for the Saudis when he visited. He wants to be praised, and a quick way to do that is to please. All he had to do was say the right, empty things they wanted to hear.

You didn’t think it mattered, did you?

 

Citation:
The Atlantic: Trump complies with Saudi line

Special prosecutor named for FBI Russia Investigation

With the appointment of Robert Mueller as special counsel to the Russia investigation by the FBI, it could be said that the Trump administration is making an overture to the House and Senate in the wake of ten days of scandal and conflict driving the two branches further apart. It could also be said that Rosenstein’s covering his arse. By selecting Mueller, a former FBI director and one respected by both parties and acknowledged as independent, some members of the house will most likely have been mollified, though how Trump is taking the news is still unknown, and given that he retains the authority to dismiss the special prosecutor at any moment it should not be forgotten that he remains a volatile man-child with far too much power and not enough sense.

Currentlly it appears that Mueller’s main duties will involve investigating, and only investigating, the possible connections the Trump campaign team may have had with the Russian government, and any connections that stem from that. It will only be in the conclusion of this investigation that any ides regarding prosecution and impeachment can be brought up.

And regarding impeachment, let me say that at no point should it be assumed that impeachment will be some magic bullet that will solve all the problems. Disregarding the damage Trump has done and will continue to do to the office of President, the norms he has shattered and the expectations you can only assume some reckless idiot/cynical conman will use to gain power, and disregarding the laws and norm he and his administration will implement in the areas they control (the justice department, the law enforcement agencies, and so on) at no point should anyone assume that impeachment would solve any of those problems, or even Trump himself.

Let’s not forget, Clinton didn’t leave office after he was impeached. Admittedly this was in part due to the flagrant disregard to the import of such a tool, as Newt Gingrich used it more as a weapon against a democrat than a response to a threat to the country as his predecessors did to Nixon. Regardless, Clinton completed his second term despite being impeached for, among other things, trying to prevent an investigation into his relationship with Monica Lewinski. In turn, if the senate does not complete the process of Impeachment and Convict the President, Trump won’t be going anywhere.

Mueller is a good first step, though whether it will amount to anything, whether it can amount to a high crime prosecutable offence isn’t clear. As such, don’t look at impeachment like a simple solution to Trump. He’ll stay if he can, and his legacy and damage will remain for years after regardless of what occurs.

 

Citation:
Politico: Justice Dept. Names Robert Mueller as Special Counsel

My concerns lately. (also seriously wtf Trump?)

Trump is Stupid. He is stupid, incompetent and scary for all the reasons you don’t want to be scary. But I never considered him a legitimate threat, to his own country and to international stability, until he decided to remove from office the head of one of his intelligence agencies, and then to inform a known hostile power about intelligence gathered form an ally. Trump is actively threatening his own government, the relationships it has painstakingly built with allies across the globe, and supporting and endorsing authoritarians and nation-states that are openly acknowledged to be antagonistic to his own country, because…reasons? These are not the actions of a sane, competent or even mildly stupid leader.

These are the actions of a despot.

What laws have been passed with his administration and the republican government have ben actively structured to threaten lively hoods, the environment, the restrictions placed on those on wall street who have not earned the trust they are being given right now, all the while dismantling anything and everything his predecessor built that he can get his hands on. He is opposed to immigration, large scale trade agreements (because TPP/NAFTA/Mexico), and has established himself not only as opposed and threatening to the press within his nation, denying their legitimacy and independence in an attempt to control how they receive and report him, but also to any intelligence agency at home or abroad that does not pledge loyalty to him.

At no point are these actions acceptable, at no point can they be regarded as reasonable or sane, and at no point has this man-child proven to be motivated by anything more than narcissistic ambition and self-gratification.

The only positive of this man, of what he and his administration have wrought, of what he is planning to do and what he hasn’t even come up with yet because his attention span is too short to even pay attention for more than two minutes (according to the organizers of the latest NATO summit), is that he has revealed the weakness of democracy. It must be fought for, defended and maintained, not blindly trusted and assumed to work no matter how many middle fingers you throw into office.

Liberty is a privilege. It was never a right. Let’s hope the children in the US remember this lesson, and that Europe doesn’t need to be taught it once more. The world is far more dangerous today than it was in the 1930’s, and I don’t know what will be left if we go to the war this blithering idiot is flinging us towards.

Yates’ Testimony, and thoughts

So, today Sally Yates, the former acting attorney general for the US, completed her testimony to the Senate intelligence committee. There were certain predictable outcomes, the Democrats focused on Flynn, Russia and her concerns regarding possible blackmail. The republicans focused on leaks and her refusal to defend the Muslim ban, ignoring or trying to refute her claims that it was anyone other than Trump and his Transition teams fault.

So, what we gleaned form this was that the Trump administration was informed, didn’t do anything until they were caught, and got rid of Yates not only as fast as they could, but the second she was insubordinate. Because apparently it is not the role of the Attorney General to serve in the best interests of the people and the constitution. Except when republicans say otherwise of course.

I don’t know how far this moved anything. Didn’t change much from where I stand, though keeping the pressure on Trump is of course important.

Just doesn’t change much really, not unless they actually use this stuff to impeach Trump and that ain’t happening anytime soon.

Thursday Update, May 4 edition (cause meh)

So, FBI Director Comey had his public hearing today, which was interesting. He spent most of his time defending himself (from what i read) and responding to concerns over leaks and the investigations currently ongoing. Apparently the Clinton thing was a big deal to a lot of people given the coverage, but I don’t understand why this was news really. It came out during the election and the aftermath why he responded the way he did, the concerns over leaking within his department and the republican support for Trump and disdain for Clinton.

The point about Bill’s meeting with Loretta Lynch was interesting though, apparently the tarmac meeting convinced him he needed to intervene. Hmm.

Also Teresa May has lashed out at Brussels regarding there comments about the British snap election, which of course they’re not allowed to do. That and the European papers (which I haven’t read) apparent depiction of the British position on the EU talks is also problematic. Because clearly the Brussels papers are going to be on her side? Meh, fodder for the masses.

There’s other things, but the AHCA, Putin and Erdogans meeting, they’re…relevant. But they just reflect current realities, until something changes I don’t feel any need to comment.

Also they’re not interesting, so. Yeah.