The aftermath of the Attack on Saudi Arabia’s Oil fields

The recent attack on Saudi Arabia’s oil fields has made most international observers (and vehicle owners) wary and concerned over the attacks and the people behind them. While the Trump Administration did on the outset blame and condemn Iran for the attacks on the oil fields, this was met with skepticism due to the current relationship between the two nations, the the credibility of current American leadership.

However today France, Germany and the UK together released a letter jointly naming and condemning Iran as the culprit behind the attacks. Not only does this make the claim against the Islamic Republic much more likely to be true, it also means any further acts by those nations involved are suddenly in a much more volatile environment. In this case that means the announcement by the Trump Administration of sending more soldiers to Saudi Arabia to defend the nation could lead to an increase in military movement by all three nations quickly which would only increase tensions.

There doesn’t seem to be a simple way to deescalate this issue currently, at best a stalemate may occur between these three nations until tensions ease over time, though that seems unlikely at this stage.

A Quick note on Primarying Donald Trump

Just, quickly, let’s look at this little idea. So two Republicans, a former congressman (one term) and a Former Governor decided it would be a good idea to primary Trump for President. In the Republican Primary. So what we have is a former Tea Party, ‘former’ Trumpian congressman who if I had to guess is going to try and beat Trump in this race by being ‘Trumpier’, if you like.

This is a guy considered “grabbing [his] musket” if Hilary beat Trump in 2016, invited an open White Nationalist to his radio show, and during his single term in congress actively opposed abortion in any circumstance. So I understand where he’s coming from but the why still escapes me. Unless he really is just that cynical and wants his name out there.

And then there is the former Governor of Massachusetts Bill Weld, who is functionally a Paul Ryan republican. I’m sure he’s very nice in person but he has yet to see a government sector or agency “that can’t be pruned 10 or 20 percent”, so a Libertarian style republican who, yes, I personally disagree with strongly.

Now, look this is all well and good but it’s also basically a waste of time. They are going against a President (one) with a party support of around 88% (two) and who is known as, if not a good president (at all), is a very good campaigner (three). So I don’t really see how any of them think they will be anything but entertainment for the rest of us.

To summarize: Okay, but why though?

About Trumps fear-mongering

Peter Beinart of The Atlantic wrote a piece recently regarding Trumps usage of terrorist attacks to stoke the fears of his base and try to boost his ratings in the polls. During the 2016 election and the Republican primary, whenever there was a major attack in Europe or the US, Trump would respond with increasingly bigoted and loaded ideas and plans, and his audience lapped it up. To the extent it made a major difference in the Primary and election campaign for those concerned with security he definitely had the lead there, which would have had some impact on the final results.

However at this stage there simply aren’t any major attacks or concerns going on right now. Given that this style of fear-mongering is a major part of Trumps campaign style he has then resorted to a different style of attacks, that is creating conflicts with African American, Latino and Palestinian members of congress (the self-proclaimed Squad) and mayors of cities, attempting to bolster his numbers and harm the eventual opposition. However much like the attacks he made against the Migrant Caravan in 2018, it doesn’t seem to be working. Those already predisposed to vote or agree with him are encouraged, but his ratings in the polls have if anything dropped. Whether this is due to people not considering the Squad or others as threats, or that in this case Trump is the aggressor and not instead responding to attacks regardless it isn’t working.

Doubtful that it will stop though.

Pelosis response to Trumps tweets

Yesterday House Speaker Nancy Pelosi began to call for a house resolution condemning Trumps tweets regarding members of the Democratic Caucus, saying that “they should go back home” as if those members were not born in or naturalized citizens of the United States. Supposedly Trump made these statements on account of their skin color, and accordingly many called them racist. However when Speaker Pelosi named the tweets as such, another member of the house from the Republican caucus labeled them degrading to a member of government and called for them to be stripped from the record.

From there reporters have labelled the ensuing fracas as ‘Chaotic’. I just call it stupid. A statement of fact is not an insult, the Speakers words carried no connotation or tone indicating any such thing but conservatives saw a chance to defend Trump, attack Democrats and so on, and did so. And it was just so goddamn pointless, if the House, a part of the Legislative branch, isn’t allowed to respond to the Executive branch, if it cannot be an independent part of the government, why even be separate.

This isn’t a long post, but god this is stupid and I felt like poking it.

The Immigration crisis

In America the President of the country has consistently based his politics on the fear that there is a growing migrant crisis coming from the southern border, that a horde is coming to his country’s shores the steal, rape and kill their way through the country. Throughout his presidency he has attempted to deal with this issue through usage of deterrents as he and his aids call them, via family separation, internment camps and threatening to use military forces to push back the so called horde, or in particular a migrant caravan.

Recently the brutality of one of those options, the internment camps, has come to light once more where not only have at least seven children died during captivity, thousands are being held every day in these camps, along with thousands more adults with limited resources, food, water, clothing and bathing materials. To exacerbate matters, on July Fourth, the United States independence day, a document has been released wherein the US is not obligated to provide soap, toothpaste or even sleep to detainees as they are not citizens of the United States. Irregardless of the fact that as asylum seekers (which they all are, and which is a legal act) they are in fact entitled to those things as has been ratified by the courts for decades. Though given the current nature of the Supreme court perhaps that is less certain.

Additionally much of this ‘crisis’ has been exacerbated by the United States, their involvement in Venezuela exacerbating an already turbulent moment in the country’s history, and their previous efforts to remove left leaning and often more importantly Reformist leaders within nations such as Guatemala, El Salvador, Nicaragua leading to military dictatorships and later on severe gang violence is indeed what has lead so many people, especially women too often pregnant, to leave the country in the hopes of finding a better life. Leading to the issue on the border. Not of course that any of this will be mentioned my the press or the government or the judiciary or even the Democrats running for President or for attention. Responsibility is such a difficult thing after all.

In the end this creates a cycle where migrants come to the US, are demonized for power and influence, and by encouraging the issues that already exist in these South American Nations or creating them, those who wish to create a boogeyman to remain in power can do so in perpetuity.

The Democratic Primary heats up

A little. It heats up a little.

Okay at this stage and with the first debates just around the corner, the stage is pretty much set regarding placement in the race and who has the potential to be the Presidential contender and who should probably drop out. So naturally this is when the attacks come out.

Currently these attacks are mostly centered on Biden, the front runner at currently 32% in the polls, especially with his recent nostalgia regarding the segregationists he spoke with. According to him they were very civil in their discussions, to him a white man. I wonder how they would have responded if it was an African-American they were speaking to, if they would have remained so polite. Regardless in the wake of that comment Cory Booker and others called on Biden to apologize, and Biden then refused to do so. Attacks continued accordingly and likely will for the foreseeable future.

However Biden isn’t the only one receiving attacks, Bernie is being attacked from the center for his Democratic Socialist views, sticking to his guns as he does best, and in the aftermath of his speech defining his views on Democratic Socialism, the establishment side of the Democratic party has now pegged Elizabeth Warren as a compromise candidate. Because Bernie’s just so scary. As it is pretty much everyone is a little bit insulted by this turn of events, but this also represents a reminder: Bernie is not trusted by the Democratic party and I am uncertain that if he should win the nomination (not impossible though certainly difficult) he will not be impeded by his own party.

So, we have reached a turning point in the Primaries, though I doubt it will be the last. How far this goes and who remains in the aftermath is at this stage anyone’s guess though I imagine the first debate will be what truly decides who the front-runners are and who will swiftly be removed from the race.

Recent developments

After several days Russian journalist Ivan Golunov was released after being arrested on purportedly trumped up charges of drug charges. This is important for two reasons, one it indicates a lack of control Putin apparently has over his internal security apparatus, which can then be linked to further actions both inside Russia by police and security agencies and outside the country. For example, last year a Russian double agent was poisoned in Britain by a nerve agent allegedly created by Russia. If this was not done by direct orders or support from the Kremlin but was assumed to be, and from that assumption the actions would be protected and defended by the state, that actually indicates a loss of control. Fact is, in both of these cases, reprisals were swift: for the agent, not only did he and his daughter survive, he pointed the finger at Russia who received international condemnation and removal of their diplomats (likely spies) from their embassies in those countries.

For the second, not only was Golunov released in the face of public pressure, a loophole was found in the laws restricting protest, where single picket protesters surrounded the Police Headquarters in Moscow, with upwards of 50 others on standby to take over when the protesters got tired. Additionally this was in concert with an economic event, the St. Petersburg International Economic Convention, where Putin met with Xi Jinping, Premier of China, and was something the Kremlin attaches great importance to. This event was broadly ignored due to the ongoing arrest of Golunov, rather than the center of attention as Putin and the government would have preferred.

As of late Putin has enjoyed a reputation as a chess master regarding politics, one who has complete control over his own security apparatus. But these two cases indicate the opposite, overly-aggressive operatives moving ahead without approval from the Kremlin, and actually causing a fair amount of distress for Putin politically. The myth regarding Putin is growing more and more in question and his countries ability to impact the globe due to their reputation and supposed power may be further and further impacted accordingly.

An Austrian Shift

Given recent developments in Austria, I thought it would be good to focus on something other than America and focus on what is frankly the most stunning political scandal currently on the continent, and potentially this year. To summarize, last week a video came out showing the incumbent vice-chancellor and head of the Freedom Party in Austria, talking openly with a supposed Russian oligarchs niece, who turned out to be a plant by unknown agents, about her buying a newspaper and functionally making it a propaganda piece for their party and in exchange receiving lucrative government contracts from the party once in power. The leader, Hanz-Christian Stratche, resigned the next day, his party was removed in power and not long after the Chancellor himself, Sebastian Kurz himself withdrew his party, the Peoples Party, from the government, initiating a snap election in September.

He has now been removed from the Chancellorship by a vote of no-confidence, orchestrated by the center-left Social Democrats party.

So now there’s going to be an election for the entire government and with Kurz out of power, Austria is now run by a caretaker government of technocrats in the meantime. Functionally, Kurz still has a very good chance of getting in, and with his hard-line immigration stance, a good chance of taking seats away from the Freedom Party rather than losing any. On the other hand, he has faced a lot of criticism for his general handling of government, supposed power grabs, poor cooperation with government and actions during this scandal alone could lead to consequences. Also, frankly, polling these days is questionable at best so who knows which way the election will fall.

A Minor Update

Earlier I wrote about the current and prospective candidates for the Democratic primary, including Joe Biden who I at the time said was unlikely to run due to Beto O’Rourke filling in my opinion that particular lane. However I was run and now former Vice President Joe Biden is officially in the race, opening with a video decrying the amorality and unamerican nature of the current President and calling for his nation to remember who they are. Which is fine, but doesn’t actually say anything about him, his beliefs, his policies, his record and so on.

Unfortunately Biden is currently acting on a Values only approach, that is he is being very vague on policy while calling for a fight for the soul of his nation. So are other candidates, Pete Buttigieg has yet to release any formal proposals, while claiming the policies that drive Bernie Sanders are no longer shocking. Whether he means people can now go further or that they no longer posses a shock-value, I’m unsure. Additionally Beto O’Rourke has only just now released a serious proposal, the admittedly largest and most thorough piece on Climate Change in the race. Which is good, however candidates such as Elizabeth Warren, Bernie Sanders, Kamala Harris, Corey Booker, have all published many more serious proposals and are basing they’re campaigns on their policies not just their words.

I can understand, to a degree the perspective that the former three are working from, particularly effective presidents such as Franklin Roosevelt and Ronald Reagan both ran on more ideal based, vaguer campaigns before proving themselves serious ideological presidents. However, neither Biden nor O’Rourke have the sort of record that encourages that sort of faith in their eventual presidency, and Buttigieg is seemingly much more concerned with the so-called ‘middle of the road’ voters than either actual independents or the base of the Democratic Party.

Still beyond all that it is still early days and frankly that Primary is anyone’s game.

Also, the Australian Election is currently happening and Labour looks likely to do very well out of it.Maybe. Neat.

Mueller Report

Okay, so with the Mueller report well and truly completed and (broadly) publicly released, and after reading all the hot takes on it, now seems as good a time to discuss it here after taking a moment to calm down and actually read the damn thing.

So.

Trumps team did engage in some criminal conduct, a lot of which has already been dealt with or is being currently pursued in the courts or investigations, Trump himself however did not engage in any conduct which he can be convicted on. On the other hand he cannot be exonerated as he acted in a manner that indicates intent to either obstruct or engage in or encourage certain conspiratorial actions. Additionally as President, Mueller felt he could not indict the sitting President, in compliance with current Justice Department rules, and said department declined to indict the President himself. None of this however precludes impeachment which being a political tool relying on ‘High Crimes and Misdemeanors” which can be translated as politically dangerous, treasonous or malicious conduct, and frankly is very open to interpretation.

So, bluntly put, yes the team did some stupid stuff but nothing big enough to be called conspiracy, Trump might have encouraged it but did not seemingly coordinate it. He probably did however have some criminal intent regarding the firing of Comey (this being the big obstruction charge, as well as his repeated attempts to stymie the investigation itself) but none of that is big enough to justify, in Muellers view, to indict the sitting President. So he instead handed off the job to Congress and the Justice department, which was in my view a wise display of restraint. If he had just called out the President 1) the President would have ignored it and used it as a defense and attack to cement his position and 2) Mueller probably would have been blocked by the Justice Department, rendering it a moot point except as a political attack.

This lines up with a couple of things I’ve though for a while, on one hand the Trump campaign was, well, a mess. It just did not have, in my view, the coordination and organization to work with any large group, much less a nation that would have wanted any involvement to be covert enough to temporarily evade one of the biggest security apparatuses in the world. Secondly, if Trump was ever going to be impacted by the report it would be through congress not the Justice Department. If Mueller went ahead with an indictment (somehow) it would have been labeled a deep state tactic, ignored and used as a reason, potentially, to cement a further hold on power.

So, the Mueller report was not the end of a Presidency as so many hoped/feared. It was also not a win for Trump, or his Justice department whose reputation will be under fire from quite some time due to Barrs defense. In the end if a result is to be obtained from the report, it will be through Congress but given the current nature of American politics, the reality of the Republican party being a collection of bad-faith actors, the President will certainly not be removed by Congress, and impeachment will be seen by his supporters and (of much more concern) potentially by independents as overreach.